Bok pack’s upward trend spells trouble for the All Blacks

There’s a perception that the Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series has been nip and tuck, which is probably understandable from the viewpoint that the All Blacks drew first blood at Ellis Park, leaving the Springboks in a backs to the wall situation for the next 160 minutes.

Yet, if you have time to watch all three games again, it should confirm that while there were times that the visitors found inroads through the Bok defensive system far too easily, the Boks, but for the last part of the Johannesburg game where part of it they were down to 13 men, have always had the advantage where it still most matters - the power game.

The charge down try in the first test that the All Blacks scored to take the lead after halftime when they were under the cosh physically was a big moment in that first game. As of course was the scrum penalty awarded against the Boks when, by their own admission, they’d developed tunnel vision and were seduced by the desire to just scrum New Zealand into the ground.

#RugbysGreatestRivalry heads to Baltimore for the ninth and final match of the tour 🇿🇦🇺🇸🇳🇿 pic.twitter.com/KrWUbUrJO0 — SuperSport Rugby (@SSRugby) September 8, 2026

Nine times out of 10 in that situation, with a team so physically superior, the one with the power advantage will win. And by some distance. A look at the game again confirms the initial impression - the Boks conspired against themselves, perhaps as much in the selection as anywhere else, as there was a lack of co-ordination that comes from not playing together.

The hosts went into that match not having played together as the unit they were that day for a month and a half. They played England in Johannesburg on 4 July, and then there was rotation of selection for the remaining Nations Champions game. The first test was on 22 August. So one month and 18 days.

BUILDING COHESION HAS HAD PAY-OFF SINCE JOBURG

Bok coach Rassie Erasmus has admitted subsequently that he got that wrong, although that is only the case if you take on the singular vision that beating the All Blacks in the RGR series is all that matters. But that’s not the case, for next year’s Rugby World Cup in Australia is also starting to loom larger, and given the average age of his first choice team, currently a nudge over 30, Erasmus has little choice but to keep building depth.

That opening test defeat though may have served as a timely wake-up call. While Erasmus has always viewed the RGR series as the big event of this penultimate year of the current World Cup cycle, he did not have the obsession with it that new All Black coach Dave Rennie had. Until Ellis Park. Since then, to use a phrase first coined by Stormers coach John Dobson, the Boks have gone full metal jacket in their selection.

With the exception of the return of skipper Siya Kolisi for Paul de Villiers, and the decision to time the arrival of the first choice front row differently in Cape Town, the pack has remained the same. And has been on an upward trajectory in terms of adding accuracy to the power that was so evident in the first game.

CHILLING ASSESSMENT FROM FORWARDS COACH DAVIDS

Forwards coach Deon Davids gave a chilling assessment - well, chilling if you are an All Black supporter or player - in an online press conference from Washington, where the Boks are based ahead of Saturday’s final game of the four match series in Baltimore.

“We continuously evaluate our systems, our individual effort and our effort and our effort as a pack of forwards, and I think there’s still room for improvement,” said Davids.

“From a set-piece perspective, we will continue to strive to improve in order to find better cohesion between our attack and defence.”

It’s not just the scrums either, the lineout has been close to perfect too since Ellis Park.

“What is coming together now is the product of hard work,” said Davids, who added that the Boks did really well in dealing with the conditions in the FNB Stadium game.

“There were winds from different angles all over the field, so it was quite challenging for the hookers to find the right spot and get the timing right with the jumpers. I must commend them in terms of how they executed and read the conditions and allowed us a 100 per cent success rate (winning 12 out of 12 lineouts).”

RASSIE IS BACKING WHAT HAS WORKED

Where Davids might be right though about there being more to come in that the cohesion between the different team components is still not perfect. Like they did in the previous test on the highveld, they did waste opportunities inside the All Black 22 in clinching the South African leg of the series with a 29-24 win in Soweto.

But cohesion is something that has been steadily improving. And that will be behind Erasmus’ decision to go with the same team again in Baltimore. The wins in the last two games were far more emphatic that the final score differences of seven and five points respectively would suggest. The Boks were 14 points to the good with three minutes to play in the second test, and were really always in control of that game.

From the moment Jesse Kriel scored his try within the first two minutes, which came after a statement opening maul, the Boks were on top and there were no doubts who would win the game. And in Soweto it was the same story once the power game, or slow poison if you like, of the Boks started to take its toll. The All Blacks were flattered by the five point difference given that their final try was scored after the hooter with the result settled.

GOING WHERE NO-ONE HAS BEEN BEFORE


The only question mark is that the Boks are going where they’ve never been before. We have yet to see what All Black coach Dave Rennie will come up with in his selection, and he may well freshen up, whereas the core of the Bok team that played in the first game in Johannesburg, and the entire pack with the exception of Kolisi, is fronting for a fourth successive week.

But when it comes to the Bok forward trajectory that remains on an upward trend. So if they have the energy to go full tilt again, and that is a big ask if you consider the long flight they undertook not long after the Soweto game, the All Blacks are in trouble, particularly as the aspects of the attacking game that kept South Africa back are now showing signs of coming together.