ELLIS PARK WRAP: Rassie faces a catch-22 as Boks look for response

Let’s get straight to the point - there were several contributing factors to the All Black win in the first Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry test at Ellis Park, and the visiting team’s resilience and skill levels ranked high among those, but the biggest one was Rassie Erasmus’ rotation policy.

That’s not a criticism of the Springbok coach. He has to do it. It is a non-negotiable for Erasmus to build the international playing capacity of a large group of players if he wants his team to have a serious chance of winning next year’s Rugby World Cup in Australia. His first choice team, if there is such a thing, in other words the one that started at the weekend, is an ageing one.

While there are no big questions over too many individual players right now, and several of them look to still be in their pomp even though many of them are well over 30 and some are pushing to the mid-30s, there is much truth in that old saying that “Father Time waiteth for no man”. Well, Father Time might be a bit confused about Deon Fourie, who is turning 40 next month, but Fourie is a freak.

YOU NEVER KNOW WHEN THAT MOMENT WILL ARRIVE

The point is you never know when that moment will arrive when you suddenly go over the hill, where the pace and explosiveness that gives you your edge disappears. Speak to old timers who used to be top wings and they will tell you that one season you are still there and then the next you suddenly find that a ball you used to catch up with goes into touch or reaches it’s target a couple of metres ahead of you.

We’re in an era of a high degree of specialisation when it comes to the management of players, and Erasmus’ management team are constantly monitoring the players. Those in the squad now are there because they satisfy the requirements set down for top international players. But he does need the insurance of knowing he has back-up, plus there’s also the fact that the path to next year’s World Cup final will feature matches against the All Blacks and France on consecutive weekends.

He’s figured out that he will need to mix up selections to be fresh, something he feels he learned from experience at the last World Cup, where a week after beating mighty France in a quarterfinal the Boks were pushed, and decidedly lucky to survive, against a very mediocre England in the semifinal.

So the selection policy, which saw to it that the Bok team that played this last weekend was in effect playing together for the first time since the opening Nations Championship game against England, is right and it is set in stone. And it may even prove to be a huge advantage for the Boks over the All Blacks once we get deeper into this series.

Already the Kiwis have felt the inevitable attrition, with replacements called over the weekend for frontline forwards Ethan de Groot and Josh Lord. The massive bruising the All Blacks sustained in what was still a physical mauling in Johannesburg, even though they won, is sure to be a factor going forward and it will test a resource base that is less tested than the one that Erasmus has at his command.

NO DENYING THE INHERENT RISK

There is also no denying that there is inherent risk. The Boks nearly lost to Scotland because Rassie was experimenting. That wouldn’t have mattered so much, because the end would still have justified the means. A loss to the All Blacks does matter, and no matter how resilient the All Blacks may have been, no matter how skilful and improved under the coaching of Dave Rennie, there is no way they would have won a game where they were so rank second best in the physical battle, so destroyed in the scrums, were the Boks not so lacking in co-ordination on attack.

The Boks were so sloppy, so borderline disorganised, that if you didn’t know better you’d think that the attack guru we’ve made such a fuss about over the last few years, Tony Brown, has already left the building. Brown takes over as All Black attack coach in 2028, but on the Ellis Park evidence there is nothing wrong with their current attack coach, the Scotsman Mike Blair.

That was where the All Blacks had the telling edge over the Boks, but the New Zealanders were playing their fourth test of the year, and their fifth game if you factor in the tour match against the Sharks. The Boks were playing their first game together as the core of the unit that played the first test since the 4 July win over England.

The Boks have apparently been training hard against the Lions, the professional club team that will face the All Blacks on Tuesday, but that might not have been enough given the number of times players overran balls, made silly errors, just clearly lacked cohesion and conceded a telling 22 turnovers.

HALFBACKS WERE POOR, BUT IT WAS THE FIRST TIME THEY WERE PAIRED THIS YEAR

The halfbacks who were so poor on the day, Grant Williams and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, were playing their first game together this season. So here is Erasmus’ dilemma, his catch-22 - he was probably set to change up his team for Saturday’s second test in Cape Town for the purpose of having the players who played in Johannesburg fresh for what he has long considered the potentially decisive test at Soccer City on 5 September.

As said already, the apparent depth of the Bok squad does look an advantage in such a brutally attritional series. South Africa and New Zealand have met in four test series before, but never over four consecutive weekends.

But the team that played the first test won the physical battle so handsomely, basically did all the platform necessities that were needed. All they need is fine-tuning. And now they have played together for 80 minutes, that fine-tuning will have a much better chance of happening.

So the catch-22 is the following - if you play the same team again, there’s a good chance of success. It will subvert the plan for the third test, but then if you lose in Cape Town that third test will arrive without the Boks having a chance of winning the inaugural RGR series.

LAST SEASON'S REINVENTION BROUGHT WELLINGTON SUCCESS

Making it interesting for Erasmus is his strong recollection of what happened when he completely reinvented after the defeat to the All Blacks at Eden Park last September. He changed his flyhalf; he brought Damian Willemse in at inside centre, and Canan Moodie, who has been a constant in both the big-score wins over the All Blacks in London in 2023 and Wellington, came in at outside centre. Ethan Hooker was on the wing, Eben Etzebeth was rested from the starting team, etc etc.

The stakes may seem higher this time around, but they were high then too, as a Bok defeat would have meant they lost any chance of retaining the Rugby Championship. But Erasmus has clearly settled his catch-22 already, for the team for Cape Town is set to be announced on Monday. We don’t have long to wait to find out how he has settled it.

It could well be that there is not much change to the team that bossed most of the game at Ellis Park, just a bit of tinkering, such as reintroducing the strong ball-carrying Lood de Jager and the experienced Thomas du Toit to give the bench the proper Bomb Squad effect it lacked in Johannesburg. And of course it is understood regular captain Siya Kolisi may be set to make a return.

With the long-term weather forecast suggesting Cape Town might be wet on Saturday, Handre Pollard might also be primed to reprise his match-winning role in similar conditions in the return test against the Wallabies at the DHL Stadium last year. We will know soon. This is going to be a key selection for Erasmus. There is a lot on the line.

FIRST RUGBY’S GREATEST RIVALRY TEST

South Africa 16 New Zealand 33

New Zealand take 1-0 series lead

Next game: Cape Town, Saturday 29 August, Kick-off 17.10