RACE TO EIGHT PERMUTATIONS: Sharks need to be perfect and others to fail

When the Hollywoodbets Sharks return to Vodacom URC action away against Ospreys their first priority will be to pick up the five log points they need to stay on track with a meaningful challenge for a top eight finish. They will also be keeping their eyes on three specific games elsewhere.

The Sharks have seven points to make up on the top eight bracket that ensures a place in the URC playoffs and, perhaps more importantly, qualification for next year’s Investec Champions Cup.

JP WON’T BE BANKING ON BULLS FAILURE

But although anything can happen in a competition that gets more competitive, with the teams ranked from first to 16th constantly improving, every year, JP Pietersen’s team will probably not be reckoning on the current eighth placed team, the Vodacom Bulls, dropping the ball.

Johan Ackermann’s men are in Newport this week to face the Dragons, and although the Welsh side boosted their confidence by qualifying for a rare EPRC Challenge Cup semifinal last weekend, they will start as strong favourites. And ditto for the remaining away game against Scarlets in Llanelli, while they should beat Zebre and Benetton at home in their final two fixtures.

With a lead of seven, the Bulls can afford to drop one game and still be ahead of the Sharks at the end of the season. Realistically, one game is the most they would drop, and even that is debatable. It is more likely they will win all four and challenge for a top four spot.

CARDIFF MORE LIKELY THAN MUNSTER TO BE VULNERABLE

Munster, eight points ahead of the Sharks and in seventh, have tough derbies against fellow Irish provinces Ulster and Connacht to come, and will start a four match finishing sequence to the regular season that ends with their meeting with the Fidelity SecureDrive Lions by going to Treviso at the weekend to face Benetton.

Two defeats is possible for them, but it is unlikely the Sharks will be watching their game against Benetton with as much interest as Connacht’s visit to Cape Town, the Lions’ home game against Glasgow Warriors, and Cardiff’s Welsh derby against Cardiff. Cardiff, currently sixth, are also eight points ahead of the Sharks, and catchable, and don’t have much previous experience of being in contention and getting through this late in the competition.

CONNACHT ARE DANGEROUS

Connacht are not in the top eight but are a team that the Sharks need to be concerned about as they are currently six points ahead of the Sharks and will get into the top eight this week if they beat the Stormers. This is an occasion the Sharks will be wanting the Stormers to help them out, and indeed that will be the case again at the end of the competition when the Stormers go to Cardiff.

GLASGOW GAME IS HUGE FOR LIONS’ TOP HALF PRETENSIONS

The Lions are 10 points ahead of the Sharks and are in with their best ever chance of making the top eight and securing first ever qualification for the top eight. But they play the champions, Glasgow, in Johannesburg on Saturday. If Glasgow knock them over, they will become vulnerable to the Sharks’ intentions as the Lions have a perilous end to the competition as they head to Ireland to face Leinster and Munster.

Were the Lions to lose on Saturday, it would make three defeats in the remaining four games a prospect for them, and they can then be caught by the Sharks. However, the Sharks are going to have to win and keep winning, and effectively face four knock-out games between now and the end of the competition.

TOULON EXPERIENCE WILL HAVE BOOSTED STORMERS’ CONFIDENCE

Higher up the log, the Stormers’ chances of ending top were in a weird way boosted by their narrow Champions Cup round of 16 defeat to Toulon in France. Not only does it mean their focus isn’t deflected by being committed on two front, but there was enough in the performance at Stade Mayol to suggest they have a chance of winning both their last two tough away games against Ulster and Cardiff. The Stormers, unlike in seasons past, have been good overseas in this campaign and have yet to lose a URC game north of the equator. In fact, they have yet to lose to an overseas team in the competition.

It is a tough finish though, with Connacht by no means an easy team to beat, and then they play the champions, who by then should be recovering from the shock of their unexpected Champions Cup quarterfinal defeat to Toulon.

TOUGH FINISH FOR LOG LEADERS TOO

When it comes to the quest for top spot, it should be noted that Glasgow have some tough games to come even apart from the two they are playing in South Africa. They finish off the season at home to Cardiff and Ulster away. With the second placed Stormers currently four points behind Glasgow and four ahead of third placed Ulster, those two teams going up against each other could have huge significance towards where the Stormers finish.

Leinster, currently fourth and five points behind the Stormers, have an excellent chance of jumping into the top two as of the top four teams they have the easiest run in to the end of the regular season.

Log positions after 14 games: 1. Glasgow Warriors 55 points; 2. DHL Stormers 51; Ulster 47; 4. Leinster 46; 5. Fidelity SureDrive Lions 43; 6. Cardiff 41; 7. Munster 41; 8. Vodacom Bulls 40; 9. Connacht 39; 10. Hollywoodbets Sharks 33; 11. Ospreys 30; 12. Benetton 28; 13. Edinburgh 23; 14. Scarlets 21; 15. Dragons 21; 16. Zebre 12.

Remaining fixtures for top 10 teams

1. Glasgow Warriors: Security SureDrive Lions (away), DHL Stormers (away), Cardiff (home), Ulster (away).

2. DHL Stormers: Connacht (home), Glasgow (home), Ulster (away), Cardiff (away).

3. Ulster: Leinster (home), Munster (away), DG Stormers (home), Glasgow Warriors (home).

4. Leinster: Ulster (away), Benetton (away), Fidelity SecureDrive Lions (home), Ospreys (home)

5. Fidelity SecureDrive Lions: Glasgow (home), Connacht (home), Leinster (away), Munster (away).

6. Cardiff: Scarlets (away), Ospreys (home), Glasgow (home), DHL Stormers (home)

7. Munster: Benetton (away), Ulster (home), Connacht (away), Fidelity SecureDrive Lions (home).

8. Vodacom Bulls: Dragons (away), Scarlets (away), Zebre (home), Benetton (away).

9. Connacht: DHL Stormers (away), Fidelity SecureDrive Lions (away), Munster (home), Edinburgh (home).

10. Hollywoodbets Sharks: Ospreys (away), Edinburgh (away), Benetton (home), Zebre (home).